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DRAM demand is shifting the smartphone supply conversation
What the memory shortage means for certified pre-owned device supply
The smartphone supply chain is facing a challenge. The industry press calls it “RAMageddon,” and it’s the result of AI data centers taking up an enormous share of memory manufacturing capacity. Chipmakers have redirected production toward the high-bandwidth memory that AI servers depend on and scaled back output of the standard DRAM and NAND that goes into phones, tablets, and laptops. Supply is tightening, contract prices are climbing, and the cost pressure is reaching nearly every device maker at once.
Apple has been unusually direct about it. Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, CEO Tim Cook described the surge in memory and storage costs as unlike anything he's encountered in more than 40 years and signaled that price increases couldn't be avoided.
For carriers, MSOs, OEMs, and retailers, RAMageddon raises a practical concern beyond pricing. Dependable inventory needs a real-world solution if new device costs keep climbing and availability becomes harder to predict through 2026. The silver lining may be a channel that's already been building for the past five years.
Certified pre-owned demand was already growing before the memory shortage.
The move toward certified pre-owned devices has been underway for years. The current disruption didn't start it.
Assurant survey data shows that consumer interest in purchasing a certified pre-owned device climbed from 17% in 2024 to 25% in 2026, close to a 50% increase over the period measured.*
The market-level data tells the same story. Counterpoint, an independent technology market research firm that tracks the global smartphone market and its secondary channel, found that global refurbished smartphone sales grew 6% year over year in the second half of 2025, helped along by holiday trade-in offers and the upgrade activity that followed the iPhone 17 launch. Revenue has climbed alongside volume for three straight years, driven by a market shifting toward organized channels and higher-end devices.**
Data and image courtesy of Counterpoint
The takeaway for partners is straightforward. The DRAM shortage arrives on top of a secondary market that already has structural momentum behind it.
How the memory shortage accelerates certified pre-owned demand
The mechanism is simple enough. Memory shortages raise component costs and constrain new smartphone production. Customers, in turn, change their device ownership and upgrade behaviors.
Three dynamics pushing buyers toward refurbished devices
- Price pressure: Component shortages, especially DRAM and NAND, are increasing new device prices directly. Refurbished is being positioned as a cost-saving workaround rather than a budget compromise.
- Supply constraints: When availability drops or pricing increases, buyers actively shift behavior, delaying upgrades or choosing refurbished or older models. Pre-owned becomes the rational alternative that's not just reserved for cost-conscious consumers.
- Macro disruption: AI-driven memory shortages are already being linked to reduced shipments, higher costs, and greater reliance on refurbished devices.
Supply constraints don't need to dominate the refurbished conversation to matter. They act as the catalyst that turns certified pre-owned from a consideration into a practical buying decision.
What the projections show for the refurbished market in 2026
Counterpoint's read on 2026 reflects that shift. New smartphone shipments are expected to decline due to memory price concerns, while refurbished smartphone sales are expected to rise roughly 11% year over year. Counterpoint also projects revenue growth for the secondary market in 2026 with DRAM-influenced pressures toward pre-owned.**
Carriers may not be able to absorb the higher costs tied to memory shortages and may need to pass them through, which makes pre-owned a practical way for customers to reach flagship devices at a better value.** The near-term opportunity is strongest for carriers with circular lifecycle programs and customers who are aware of them.
“Supply constraints don't need to dominate to matter. They transform certified pre-owned from a consideration to a practical buying decision.”
Why pre-owned device pricing may break its seasonal pattern
Pre-owned device pricing typically sees a 15% to 20% decline during peak season. If memory-related constraints persist through the fall launch window and the holidays, limited new-device availability could support enough demand for used inventory to soften or avoid that decline.
The certified pre-owned market isn't immune to volatility. The shortage changes the pricing equation by creating stronger demand support for used and certified inventory.
What past supply shocks revealed about buyer behavior
Past disruption from COVID, tariffs, and other causes demonstrated how fast buyers change behavior when availability, pricing, or timing becomes uncertain. 2026 won't repeat those dynamics exactly. When new-device availability tightens, the secondary market becomes more than a backup channel. It serves as a pressure valve for consumers, carriers, MSOs, retailers, and enterprise buyers trying to maintain access to quality devices.
Why certification matters more when new device prices rise
Rising interest in pre-owned devices during a shortage doesn't guarantee that those devices will sell. Trust determines that.
Counterpoint's own taxonomy makes the stakes concrete.
Data and image courtesy of Counterpoint
Of the 162.8 million secondary smartphones sold globally in the second half of 2025, 52.9 million changed hands with no mechanical work performed at all. No repairs, no component replacement. The data is wiped, the device is cleaned and reboxed, and it sells as is. The other 109.8 million were refurbished, meaning they were wiped, repaired, cleaned, reboxed, and resold.**
Certification adds trust to the pre-owned market with testing and grading designed to help ensure device quality.
Counterpoint's consumer research also points toward buyers pursuing warranties offered through trusted retail outlets and carriers as factors in pre-owned sales growth. In India, better grading, certified checks, published test reports, and warranties of six to 12 months are lifting both trust and willingness to purchase over prior years’ trends.**
How Assurant helps carriers, OEMs, MSOs, and retailers secure certified pre-owned supply
The supply already exists. It just isn't moving.
Counterpoint counted 494 million pre-owned smartphones globally in the second half of 2025. Only 178 million of them sold. The remaining 316 million went into drawers, sat idle as spare devices, or got handed down to friends and family. They never reentered the value chain, and their value wasn’t recaptured.**
316 million pre-owned smartphones never reentered the value chain. That idle inventory is the most underused supply source in the mobile ecosystem.
Grading, diagnostics, functional testing, and warranty coverage separate used devices from certified pre-owned ones. Assurant certifies the devices it processes, which means partners who put that inventory in front of their customers inherit the trust that certification carries. Customers feel the difference at the point of sale.
It’s a business Assurant has been building for years, well ahead of the current shortage. Our current asset value recovery network reaches 1,500 downstream partners across 33 countries and five continents. We processed 13.5M devices globally in 2025.
That footprint supports partners in two directions. Assurant takes in returned and traded-in assets, grades them using AI-assisted diagnostics, and returns value by reselling them into the secondary market. We also source pre-owned inventory on behalf of partners and add CPO products to existing storefronts, so certified devices are available where customers already shop.
Both capabilities carry more weight when supply is uncertain. A partner that can turn its own returns into certified inventory, or source that inventory when new devices are constrained, has options that a partner relying on new supply alone doesn't have.
“The winners in this environment will be the partners that can turn returned devices into trusted, available, certified inventory at scale.”
Certified pre-owned as a supply resilience strategy
Certified pre-owned has long appealed to price-conscious buyers. The memory shortage is expanding that role into a lever for supply resilience, customer affordability, device optimization, and lifecycle value recovery. The winners in this environment will be the partners that can turn returned devices into trusted, available, certified inventory at scale.
The opportunity ahead goes beyond offering a lower-cost device. It's the chance to build a trusted, scalable supply channel that helps carriers, MSOs, OEMs, and retailers keep customers moving forward, even when new-device supply becomes harder to predict.
Download our Certified-Pre Owned Devices Research Report to learn more about today's pre-owned market.
Sources
* Assurant CPO consumer survey, 2024-2025.
** Counterpoint, Global Secondary Smartphone Report, H2 2025.
Jeremy Purvis
Jeremy Purvis is Senior Vice President of CPO Solutions at Assurant, where he leads programs that extend the life of connected devices by bringing high-quality, certified pre-owned devices to consumers. His work supports more sustainable device lifecycle solutions while creating value for clients and customers.
